Killer-Asteroid Apophis Has Now Much Higher Probability of Striking the Planet Earth
Written by Marko on April 17, 2008
Only a 13-year-old school boy found an error in NASA’s calculation and came up with much larger probability for the killer-asteroid Apophis to strike the Earth. According to NASA Apophis has 1/45.000 probability to strike the Earth. 13 years old Nico Marquardt noticed an error in NASA’s calculation and corrected it to staggering 1/450, says Potsdamer Neuerster Nachricten magazine.
Apophis is a big asteroid that is going to pass our planet in 2029. According to Nico Marquardt there is a possibility that Apophis collides with one of our 40.000 satellites orbiting the Earth. This collision might change the direction of Apophis so that next time passing our planet in 2036 Apophis would slam to our planet. Both NASA and Marquardt believe that if Apophis hits our planet, it will slam into a sea. This would cause a super-massive tsunami.
Oh boy! 1/450 probability sounds pretty large for me! This new calculation makes Apophis a real threat. Let’s see what researchers say about the new results. Meanwhile I will stay a bit worried.. Naa, just kidding. Whatever will happen, Apophis passing our planet in 2029 and especially 2036 will be a big thing. Apophis will gain lots of attention and the media will talk about it heavily.
More about Apophis from Wikipedia: “99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered“.
This article was written by Marko Pyhajarvi and its original location is in HomeboyAstronomy.Com astronomy blog. For more great astronomy articles, please visit HomeboyAstronomy.Com.
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04-17-2008
4:15 pm
Arnold
Marko:
The Register (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/) yesterday reports that the European Space Agency denied this story. The ESA never confirmed Marquardt’s numbers. The odds remain at 1 in 45 000.
04-17-2008
4:19 pm
Arnold
Marko: Here’s some late-breaking news on this story. NASA has issued an official denial. See http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-063 .
04-18-2008
11:37 am
marko
Arnold, thank you for the information. This is interesting and makes me thinking if the real probability is high and NASA wants to prevent hysteria. I might be wrong. Anyhow, for further speculation we should see how this young boy has calculated his estimation.
05-08-2008
4:21 am
B. Hunt
Haha… What a surprise….
I think NASA intentionally miffed the calculations, because as an organization they are EXTREMELY paranoid about inciting any panic.
If the 1/450 chance is true, I think they would plan to keep it quiet until they determine how to deal with i t.
They’re probably tracking other objects like Apophis that we haven’t heard about, and won’t until they’ve assessed the threat, and determined if we can deal with it or not. If we can’t you probably won’t hear about it, until the asteroid hits.
05-09-2008
11:23 am
marko
B. Hunt, thanks for visiting and leaving your comment!
I agree with you. Although I would be surprised to hear, it is possible that NASA doesn’t want to cause panic. Anyhow, I believe the truth is that this German youngster did not calculate correctly as stated alter by NASA.
All in all, 1/450 would be very high probability. In that case it pass our planet very near.
06-05-2008
4:40 pm
TheZoo
When the original story came out years ago the NASA scientist were quickly discredited and disappeared and a NASA article about how lucky we would be on Friday 13 and how fun it would be to look up and see this object skipping by came out within hours. Their quick and absolute denial of the original and this proposed calculation should make anyone pause. Anything can cause a change of course between now and then let alone a man made object. But the ethical issue is do we want to know. I’d much prefer a smaller window of 3 days or so notice of such a devastating event. The human race simply can’t handle the moral realities associated with such an event and their will be chaos (notice present tense – no way NASA will be able to contain this in about 20 years when the should”a”, would”a”, could”a” ’s come out). In any regard I applaud Nico for the braveness of it all. It’s just too bad NASA doesn’t hire him to help run their calculations for the Mars Rover campaign. I’m sure he’ll stick to the metric system………or helping them fix their only toliet in outer space. Hey did you hear the new joke?? How many astronauts does it take to fix the only toliet in outer space……….
07-20-2008
4:43 pm
marko
TheZoo, I am very sorry for this late reply, but if you are still reading my blog, please tell me the answer for the joke. I really would like to hear it
12-21-2008
4:28 am
BrandonBlaze
Id like to see where this thing is, NASA should release like a tracker so we can see where it. Personally i think if another planet doesnt get this thing, another space object will. Asteroids move pretty slow and that would make it even more likely for something to interfere with it, if it does somehow get past all the obstacles of space im sure well end up pulling an Armageddon and blowing it up
Thats just my view on it feel free to tell me how im wrong cause im only 15 and hoping i dont have to deal with an asteroid in my future lol.
06-04-2009
5:01 pm
timjim
This is exactly what earth needs, a huge population wipeout and maybe it will cool us down a bit too. When the survivors emerge, hopefully they will be smart enough to not rely on fossil fuels and make this planet a better place.we are headed down a path where we will collapse under our own weight.the powers that be make too much money to change. A powerful man recently said ‘the American way of life is not negotiable’ well if you don’t negotiate, factors occur that do the negotiating for you, and they will leave you with a lot less bargaining chips. If an asteroid dosnt do it, we will eventually do it ourselves. Welcome to earth apophis.